Splinter move puts Puma back among front-runners

As I covered in my last blog, navigational routeing software are great aids for the navigators to plot several complicated options, in the time it takes to make a cup of tea.

However, it’s up to the crews onboard to choose which way to go. They have no outside help in this difficult choice, only the metrological GRIB files sent every three hours via Inmarsat FleetBroadband.

Sometimes there is just one obvious route to sail,and the only thing that separates the teams is boat speed.  So far on Leg 4 things could not be more different. We have six boats, with six individual navigators reading the same data as each other but interpreting it totally differently.

Trade winds
Since the teams have left the uncomfortable waves of the South China Sea, it has all been about sailing East through fairly unstable light conditions to reach the trade winds that will sweep them eventually south to New Zealand.

04:01 UTC, 23 Feb: Puma, in red and trailing the fleet, sees

another option to sail north and stronger winds

This would mean sailing in the opposite direction, away from New Zealand. At one point the following day, on 24 February, Puma was sailing a course of 35 degrees and Team Sanya 127 degrees.

The move was one of the most radical we’ve seen on this race. The tension on board must have been immense.  As a superstitious man, Ken Read, the skipper of Puma, has a small piece of wood laminated to the navigational table. He commented that he has a splinter in his hand from touching the wood so much! He would need all the luck going and nerves of steal to pull this one off. 

Bold move

The long-time leg leader Camper, together with the rest of the fleet, gets position reports of each of the yachts both for tactual and safety reasons, so they could see Puma’s bold move. 

At first the comments by the other teams dismissed the gamble, but soon they were admitting that they too would like to be further north. Only Groupama pushed further up to try to converge with Puma. 

This morning Puma’s MCM Amory Ross wrote: “We appear to be OK. Our lonesome detour to the north hasn’t ended in self-destruction, we don’t find ourselves hundreds of miles behind, and by all means we are back in this race. A lot sooner than expected, too, I might add. 

07:20 UTC 24 Feb: Puma strikes north away from the fleet

Short-term profit

“The decision to stick to the high road was never built around short-term profit; it was a long-term plan that would unravel over the next week or so. 

"We figured it would be weeks before we saw anyone again.” 

I say ‘well done’ to Puma for being so bold. It can divide crews and course enormous anxieties within a team. 

Race tracker

With a reshuffle to the leaderboard on the cards and a game of nerve coming up on who pulls the trigger on the dive south, the next few days will be a good time to grab a coffee and sneak a quick look at the VOR website race tracker when the boss isn’t looking. 

It’s all brought to you by Inmarsat, so consider it work anyway… 

Mark Covell

07:02 UTC 27 Feb: Race Tracker shows Puma back in 

the running with well over 4,200 nm still to sail

Human intuition trumps the computer in erratic conditions

Computer navigation model showing the Easterly option

Only four days into the leg and the fickle hand of Mother Nature in the shape of  unpredictable weather conditions has forced the teams to consider rationing their provisions.

On PUMA, MCM Amory Ross said that predictions of a longer leg meant careful monitoring of food and vital supplies had already begun.

“Our predicted 18-day leg has turned into a 20-day one, maybe even 21 or 22; it is hard to know as the models keep changing,” Ross wrote.

Recycled meals
“We’ve started setting food aside and are mindful of our valuable resources like propane and toilet paper. Yesterday’s lunch was recycled, and, with a little hot water, became yesterday’s dinner, too.”

Gonzalo Infante, Volvo Ocean Race’s chief meteorologist, reports: “The wind is forecast to go so light that, with the waves as big as they are, we could see the boats going backwards.”

All the teams rely entirely on the weather data sent to them every three hours using FB150. They feed the GRIB files into their navigational software and then run several hypothetical predictions with different outcomes to ascertain their options.

Down to experience
It’s then down to the navigators and skippers to make the call on which way to go tactically.

The trick is to use human intuition and experience and not just blindly follow what the computer says.

The computer models are only as good as the data imported. When the conditions are so erratic and changeable, it’s hard to draw too many conclusions.

Heading east
Yesterday, Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing skipper Ian Walker said: “I wish I could tell you what the next few days hold.

“The weather files haven’t really matched up with the actual weather we’ve had since the start really, so we’re not really paying too much attention to them.

“We’re just trying to get east as fast as we can.”

Aggressive sea
The fleet has now come through the Luzon Straits and is making progress east. They are all still complaining about the uncomfortable upwind sailing and the aggressive sea state.

Camper and Groupama are the furthest east, sailing more miles east in the hope they will get a better sailing angle south when they finally get into the trade winds.

 Mark Covell

Bad weather forecasts prompt difficult decision

Water gushes on deck on CAMPER during Leg 4 to Auckland

Photo: Hamish Hooper/CAMPER ETNZ/Volvo Ocean Race

Last Saturday, race director Jack Lloyd informed the teams that Leg 4 to Auckland would be split for reasons of safety after forecasts of “un-sailable” conditions in the South China Sea.

Forecasts of winds gusting above 40 knots and waves of eight metres prompted the decision.

"We are doing this because of the weather advice issued by experts both from our own race HQ in Alicante and the teams' experts,” explained the race’s chief executive Knut Frostad.

Difficult decision
"They all believe we have conditions which will be dangerous up to 12-18 hours after the leg start, with waves that can break boats if you sail into them."

He added: "This has been a very, very difficult decision for us, which we've waited as long as possible to make so that we make the right one."

Knut’s comments - made before the start of the leg - highlight the importance of accurate weather data and pinpoint position reporting.

Hand of fate
Knowing the start time and the estimated speeds of the racing yachts, coupled with the bad forecast, Volvo could predict trouble.

The Volvo Ocean Race management team has to sail a thin line between over managing the raw risks associated with ocean racing, and letting the sometimes cruel hand of fate fall on the fleet. The call to hold back the fleet did not go down well with all the sailors.

Camper skipper Chris Nicholson said: “As a team we built and designed a boat for these types of conditions and trained in them off New Zealand last winter knowing that we were likely to encounter them in this race.

Frustration
“It is frustrating for all of us that this decision limits our ability to race the boat in the conditions we’ve prepared for. This is a professional round the world race and as such we need to be set to go to sea in rough conditions.”

Ironically, the teams restarted the leg in eerie drifting conditions in the early hours of Monday morning.
But it wasn't long before the wind and waves got up. Fierce conditions are back and several teams are suffering from seasickness.

And guess who is leading the pack to the City of Sails 5,200 nautical miles away? Yes, Camper Team New Zealand.

Mark Covell

Controlling the controllable

Team Telefonica change rigging, prior to the Sanya Haitang Bay
in-port race. (Photo Credit: IAN ROMAN/Volvo Ocean Race).

The teams are back in the water and gearing up for the weekend’s in-port racing in Sanya. As the overall points start to form a more conclusive pecking order, the teams that are winning look to defend - and the teams that are not look to attack.

We have a saying in sailing that if you’re winning, keep doing what you’re doing - don’t change anything! This is harder then it sounds. As a team can see their overall win starting to look like a possibility they naturally start to sail more cautiously.

Race leaders Team Telefónica missed today’s practice race to swap out their rigging after a routine check revealed a problem.

Strong winds
The Spanish team’s skipper Iker Martínez said the team was being cautious because of the forecast of strong winds and the fact that two boats lost their masts during leg one.

I don’t doubt that they did have a problem, but they will be looking more and more closely at their equipment and how they can avoid any unforced errors. Control the controllable as the saying goes.

On the other side of the leaderboard coin, the teams that are struggling will be looking to push harder and risk more to get on the rostrum.

Light wind
The last leg was a light wind “cat and mouse” game of ocean chess. Leg four to Auckland New Zealand will be a war of attrition and hammer-down sailing.

Race meteorologist Gonzalo Infante is forecasting a monsoon to develop to the north of Taiwan, resulting in north-easterly winds of between 35 and 40 knots across the South China Sea over the weekend.

There was talk of postponing the start, but Volvo race management has confirmed that the show must go on! Leg four will start this Sunday after the thrills and spills of a windy in-port race on Saturday.

Mark Covell

Close call near the Vietnam coast

Groupama's Brad Marsh looking at a Vietnamese fishing boat.
Photo: Yann Riou/Groupama Sailing Team/Volvo Ocean Race.

Short tacking up the Vietnam coast is hard work for the fleet. They are so close to each other, only 70 nautical miles (nm) separating the front five boats. It’s piling on the pressure to eke out every foot, past every wave and every wind shift.

As I pen this blog there is under 230nm to race to the finish.

Groupama’s media crew member (MCM), Yann Riou reported hitting something. He described the “scares” on board the second-placed French boat: “One or two panics, first with an impact with an unidentified floating object last night, which touched the keel first and then the windward rudder… No apparent damage.”

Avoided disaster
Fifth-placed Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing also narrowly avoided disaster, just managing to duck past an unlit steel pillar buoy.

“We missed it by a metre and for sure it would have made a big mess of our bow,” skipper Ian Walker said. “It doesn’t bear thinking about the damage either of the incidents could have done to our boat. I guess a miss is as big as a mile, but these incidents serve to remind us of some of the unknown risks that lie out there.”

After reconnecting with the fleet after initially punching east into the South China Sea, PUMA Ocean Racing were this morning just 10 miles shy of CAMPER as they punched north in brutal seas.

Winter's pothole
“Conditions on board are still rough though, and we continue to slam into each successive wave with a shudder like that of your car through a big winter’s pothole. There is absolutely no give,” MCM Amory Ross said.

“We’re still in urgent need of sleep, too, but everyone’s resigned to the fact that it’ll have to wait until the hotel.”

“Even in the low visibility, Camper occasionally pops into sight off the bow, and we know Abu Dhabi is lurking somewhere close behind our stern, so the strategy from here seems simple: don’t give up too much leverage and play each shift like it’s the last.

Small enough
“The racecourse has become small enough that any gain is an important one—regardless of its size—and it promises to be a busy 36 hours of hard work fighting for every length of distance on the competition. Anything can happen,” Amory said.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there were late place changes going into the last few miles of this tantalizing leg three.

Mark Covell